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Searching for a Break in GNP

  • Christiano, Lawrence J

It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in postwar U.S. gross national product data. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the date is chosen based on pretest examination of the data.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 237-50

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:3:p:237-50
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  1. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:102:y:1987:i:4:p:857-80 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "What Is Left of the Multiplier Accelerator?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 150-54, May.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20.
  7. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  8. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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