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Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth

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  • Hess, Gregory D.
  • Iwata, Shigeru

Abstract

If economic time series behave asymmetrically, then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time series models could be misleading. Beaudry and Koop (1993) recently argued that for post war U.S. GDP data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks. Their finding, if true, would be quite interesting since it would bring a new perspective to the literature on business cycle, which has been dominated by two conflicting views: the trend-reverting view of Blanchard (1981) and the permanent view of Campbell and Mankiw (1987). The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the evidence of asymmetric persistence of GDP by analyzing the statistical properties of BK's test. In particular, we show there are two pitfalls for this test: First, the t-statistic for testing asymmetry in persistence does not have a conventional interpretation. Second, a highly significant t-value may come from sources different from asymmetry. Using international data, we also explore the robustness of the BK result across the G-7 countries and find that the evidence is quite varied. Moreover, there appears to be no simple explanation for why countries display similar types of asymmetric behavior.
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  • Hess, Gregory D. & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 535-554, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:40:y:1997:i:3:p:535-554
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    Cited by:

    1. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2011. "Simulation based estimation of threshold moving average models with contemporaneous shock asymmetry," MPRA Paper 34302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Endogenous Delay Threshold Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 93-103, January.
    3. Huang, Fung-Mey & Luh, Yir-Hueih & Huang, Fung-Yea, 2012. "Unemployment information and wives’ labor supply responses to husbands’ job loss in Taiwan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1176-1194.
    4. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
    6. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Martinez, Oscar, 2006. "Large shocks vs. small shocks. (Or does size matter? May be so.)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 311-347.
    9. Adrian Pagan, 1999. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 412, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    10. Ishida, Junichiro & Yokoo, Masanori, 2004. "Threshold nonlinearities and asymmetric endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 175-189, June.
    11. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    12. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
    14. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2009. "Asymmetries in Macroeconomic Time Series in Eleven Asian Economies," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(1), pages 37-54, April.
    15. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Long memory at the long run and at the cyclical frequencies: modelling real wages in England, 1260–1994," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 83-93, March.
    16. Yokoo, Masanori & Ishida, Junichiro, 2008. "Misperception-driven chaos: Theory and policy implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1732-1753, June.
    17. Matti Vir, 2000. "Analysing long memory and asymmetries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 240-258.
    18. Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2007. "Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link between Unemployment and Criminality," Working Papers 0701E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    19. Lima, Luiz Renato & Xiao, Zhijie, 2007. "Do shocks last forever? Local persistency in economic time series," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 103-122, March.

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