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Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru

Author

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  • Rodriguez Gabriel

    (Universidad of Ottawa and Central Bank of Peru)

Abstract

Three alternative econometric approaches are used to estimate business cycles in the Peruvian economy. These approaches are the Plucking model due to Friedman (1964, 1993), the Markov Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989) and the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model suggested by Teräsvirta (1994). The results show strong rejection of the null hypothesis of linearity, presence of asymmetries and nonlinearities. Furthermore, the methods allow to find the principal episodes of recession for the Peruvian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetries; Business Regional Fluctuations; Markov Switching; Transitory and Permanent Components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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