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A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

The unemployment rate has asymmetric dynamics: It increases rapidly in recessions and falls gradually in expansions. The Congressional Budget Office developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate these dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate. The model produces simulations that match observed asymmetric business-cycle dynamics at a rate consistent with historical data. I also show that indirect duration dependence, in which transition probabilities are a function of the unemployment gap,

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:57582
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-03/57582-WP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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