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The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market

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  • Domenico Ferraro

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. labor market and output exhibit a significant asymmetry. In this paper, I develop a search-and-matching model with endogenous job destruction and permanently heterogeneous workers (in skill/productivity) that accounts for this asymmetry while also generating (i) realistic volatility in unemployment and job-finding rates and (ii) preserving a downward-sloping Beveridge curve. The model delivers stark predictions for the time series of skill-specific unemployment rates that hold in CPS micro data once I sort workers by age and education. A general implication of the analysis is that the responsiveness of unemployment to stimulus policies increases substantially during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Ferraro, 2014. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," 2014 Meeting Papers 1104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1104
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    Cited by:

    1. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Business Cycle Asymmetries and the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9816, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," Economics Series Working Papers 856, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2018. "The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 283, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. repec:spr:ijlaec:v:59:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s41027-017-0055-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:red:issued:18-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Canyon Bosler & Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Bart Hobijn, 2017. "The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth, pages 61-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    8. Eleni Iliopulos & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2014. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations: when Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14042, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2018. "Labor market and financial shocks: a time varying analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1179, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2018. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," NBER Working Papers 24355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Julien Albertini & Arthur Poirier & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2019. "A Job Vacancy Rate for Argentina," Working Papers 1919, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    12. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    13. Antoine Lepetit, . "Asymmetric Unemployment Fluctuations and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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