IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/283.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Ferraro

    (Arizona State University)

  • Giuseppe Fiori

    (North Carolina State University)

Abstract

The employment-to-population ratio in the United States features a marked cyclical asymmetry: deviations below trend (troughs) are larger than deviations above trend (peaks). This asymmetry generates a “scarring effect,” which reduces the average level of the employment-to-population ratio around which the economy fluctuates. To quantify this scar, we build an equilibrium business cycle model featuring search frictions and a labor force participation choice. The model, parametrized to match key observations of U.S. data, including gross worker flows between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation, generates the observed cyclical asymmetry in the face of symmetric aggregate shocks. We quantify that the employment-to-population ratio would be 0.3 percentage points higher (or, equivalently, a gain of about a million jobs) in the absence of business cycles. Further, by dampening cyclical fluctuations, countercyclical stabilization policy can reduce the job loss by 70%.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2018. "The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 283, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2018/paper_283.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:nbr:nberch:13342 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & William G. Gale & Benjamin H. Harris, 2010. "Activist Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 141-164, Fall.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711.
    5. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    6. Ronald Wolthoff, 2014. "It'S About Time: Implications Of The Period Length In An Equilibrium Search Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 839-867, August.
    7. Tripier, Fabien, 2004. "Can the labor market search model explain the fluctuations of allocations of time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 131-146, January.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    9. Abbritti, Mirko & Fahr, Stephan, 2013. "Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 871-886.
    10. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    11. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
    12. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
    14. Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October.
    15. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, December.
    16. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    17. David Andolfatto, 1997. "Evidence and Theory on the Cyclical Asymmetry in Unemployment Rate Fluctuations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 709-721, August.
    18. Arseneau, David M. & Chugh, Sanjay K., 2008. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with costly wage bargaining," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1401-1414, November.
    19. Giuseppe Fiori & Domenico Ferraro, 2016. "Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 359, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.