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Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

Author

Listed:
  • Cosmin Ilut
  • Matthias Kehrig
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a united explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro and micro data. In particular, they generate countercyclical movement in both aggregate conditional “macro” volatility and cross-sectional “micro” volatility as well as negative skewness in the cross section and in the time series at different level of aggregation. Concave establishment level responses of employment growth to TFP shocks estimated from Census data induce significant skewness, movements in volatility and amplification of bad aggregate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2017. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Working Papers 17-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:17-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    2. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    3. repec:red:issued:16-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2016. "Endogenous Second Moments: A Unified Approach to Fluctuations in Risk, Dispersion, and Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 16-664, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Mar 2018.
    6. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 23796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David Berger & Joseph Vavra, 2017. "Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?," NBER Working Papers 23143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; time varying volatility; asymmetric adjustment; skewness;

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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