IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v83y2017icp107-148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Elstner, Steffen
  • Hristov, Atanas

Abstract

Using the IFO Investment Survey for the German manufacturing sector, we construct a forty-year panel of firm-level investment innovations (surprises). We document the cross-sectional and time-series properties of this panel, and our main findings are: the cross-sectional dispersion of investment surprises is countercyclical, as is their average within-firm time series volatility, and both are highly correlated. This justifies, in part, strategies in the literature to use cross-sectional moments for the calibration of heteroscedasticity. At the same time, the cross-sectional dispersion of investment is procyclical, suggesting a nonsmooth capital adjustment friction at the micro level. There is substantial dispersion in within-firm volatility, a feature consistent with a recent literature on information frictions at the firm-level. Finally, the aforementioned second moments of investment innovations are Granger-caused by recessions, but not vice versa, rendering simple exogenous uncertainty shocks less plausible as drivers of business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:107-148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.07.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188917301616
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.07.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    2. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    4. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    5. Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    7. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
    8. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    9. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2015. "Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    11. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    12. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    14. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Chetan Dave, 2011. "Are Investment Expectations Rational, Adaptive Or Regressive?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 212-225, January.
    16. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    17. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
    18. Jorg Dopke & Sebastian Weber, 2010. "The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3789-3802.
    19. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    20. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    21. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Financial Frictions and Investment Dynamics in Multi-Plant Firms," Working Papers 13-56, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    23. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    24. Frank de Leeuw & Michael J. McKelvey, 1981. "Price Expectations of Business Firms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 299-314.
    25. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    26. Tian, Can, 2015. "Riskiness, endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 227-249.
    27. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Chetan, Dave, 2004. "Are Investment Expectations Rational?," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004208e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    29. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    30. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48683, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    31. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    32. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    33. Chris Woolston, 2014. "Rice," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7524), pages 49-49, October.
    34. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August.
    35. Ryan A. Decker & Pablo N. D'Erasmo & Hernan Moscoso Boedo, 2016. "Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 148-198, January.
    36. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    37. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, May.
    38. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," 2011 Meeting Papers 484, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
    40. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saijo, Hikaru, 2017. "The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-25.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2018. "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation over the Firm's Life Cycle," Discussion papers 18010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Gaganan Awano & Nicholas Bloom & Ted Dolby & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen & Jenny Vyas & Philip Wales, 2018. "A firm-level perspective on micro- and macro-level uncertainty; An analysis of business expectations and uncertainty from the UK Management and Expectations Survey," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-10, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Takafumi Kawakubo & Charlotte Chunming Meng & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen, 2021. "Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-18, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    7. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    8. Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2019. "Comments on “Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from German firms”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 64-68.
    9. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
    10. Petr Sedláček, 2020. "Creative Destruction and Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1814-1843.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    12. David R. Munro, 2021. "Consumer Behavior and Firm Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 845-873, June.
    13. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2021. "Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms's Subjective Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9394, CESifo.
    14. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 41214, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2018. "Expectation Formation and Firm Activities: New evidence from a business outlook survey in Japan," Discussion papers 18059, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    17. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2016. "Firm Expectations and Investment: Evidence from the China-Japan Island Dispute," Discussion papers 16090, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2020. "Information Acquisition and Price Setting under Uncertainty: New Survey Evidence," Discussion papers 20078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Can, 2015. "Riskiness, endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 227-249.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    3. Mehkari, M. Saif, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks in a model with mean-variance frontiers and endogenous technology choices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-98.
    4. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Endogenous information acquisition and countercyclical uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 601-642.
    6. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2019. "Endogenous second moments: A unified approach to fluctuations in risk, dispersion, and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 625-660.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Berner, Julian & Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
    11. Bachmann, Ruediger & Bayer, Christian, 2009. "The cross-section of firms over the business cycle: new facts and a DSGE exploration," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-Specific Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145563, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    17. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    18. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
    19. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    20. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey data; Expectation errors; Firm data; Investment; Idiosyncratic shocks; Higher moments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:107-148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.