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Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

Author

Listed:
  • Cosmin Ilut
  • Matthias Kehrig
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

We study the distribution of employment growth when hiring responds more to bad shocks than to good shocks. Such a concave hiring rule endogenously generates higher moments observed in establishment-level Census data for both the cross section and the time series. In particular, both aggregate conditional volatility ("macro-volatility") and the cross-sectional dispersion of employment growth ("micro-volatility") are countercyclical. Moreover, employment growth is negatively skewed in the cross section and time series, while TFP is not. The estimated response of employment growth to TFP innovations is su ciently concave to induce signi cant skewness as well as movements in volatility of employment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2015. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Working Papers 15-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:15-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    2. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and economic activity: a multi-country perspective," Bank of England working papers 730, Bank of England.
    3. Carstensen, Kai & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Schneider, Martin & Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2018. "Uncertainty is Change," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-19-00167 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Larry G. Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Hard-to-Interpret Signals," Working Papers tecipa-634, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:red:issued:17-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David R Baqaee, 2014. "Asymmetric In?ation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages,and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Working Paper 139681, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    10. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2018. "The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 283, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    13. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 23796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kölling, Arnd, 2018. "It's not about adjustment costs: Estimating asymmetries in long-run labor demand using a fractional panel probit model," Working Papers 95, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB).
    15. repec:eee:jetheo:v:183:y:2019:i:c:p:625-660 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2019. "Endogenous second moments: A unified approach to fluctuations in risk, dispersion, and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 625-660.
    17. David Berger & Joseph Vavra, 2017. "Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?," NBER Working Papers 23143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    19. Calvino, Flavio & Criscuolo, Chiara & Menon, Carlo & Secchi, Angelo, 2018. "Growth volatility and size: A firm-level study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 390-407.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; time varying volatility; asymmetric adjustment; skewness;

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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