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Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles

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  • Kristoffer P. Nimark

Abstract

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. Signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents. In a simple business cycle model, such signals can explain why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolute changes in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of survey expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2014. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2320-2367, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:8:p:2320-67 Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.8.2320
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 993-1074.
    2. Jonas Dovern & Matthias Hartmann, 2017. "Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 63-77.
    3. Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    5. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2016. "Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-63.
    7. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    8. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 21719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
    10. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Department of Economics Working Papers 150113, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.
    11. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot, 2013. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80009, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, pages 1053-1104.
    14. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Signaling Effects of Monteray Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 830, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Dan Tortorice, 2016. "The Business Cycles Implications of Fluctuating Long Run Expectations," Working Papers 100, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    16. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Department of Economics Working Papers 150113, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.
    17. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    20. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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