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Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

Author

Listed:
  • Cosmin Ilut

    () (Department of Economics, Duke University)

  • Matthias Kehrig

    () (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin)

  • Martin Schneider

    () (Department of Economics, Stanford University)

Abstract

We study the distribution of employment growth when hiring responds more to bad shocks than to good shocks. Such a concave hiring rule endogenously generates higher moments observed in establishment-level Census data for both the cross section and the time series. In particular, both aggregate conditional volatility (“macro-volatility”) and the cross-sectional dispersion of employment growth (“micro-volatility”) are countercyclical. Moreover, employment growth is negatively skewed in the cross section and time series, while TFP is not. The estimated response of employment growth to TFP innovations is sufficiently concave to induce significant skewness as well as movements in volatility of employment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Department of Economics Working Papers 150113, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:tex:wpaper:150113
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sebastian Graves, 2020. "The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1290, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Calvino, Flavio & Criscuolo, Chiara & Menon, Carlo & Secchi, Angelo, 2018. "Growth volatility and size: A firm-level study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 390-407.
    4. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2020. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," Working Papers 1180, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2019. "Endogenous second moments: A unified approach to fluctuations in risk, dispersion, and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 625-660.
    8. Yoo, Donghoon, 2019. "Ambiguous information, permanent income, and consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 79-96.
    9. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    11. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Asymmetric inflation expectations, downward rigidity of wages, and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 174-193.
    13. Kölling, Arnd, 2018. "It's not about adjustment costs: Estimating asymmetries in long-run labor demand using a fractional panel probit model," Working Papers 95, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB).
    14. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    15. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
    16. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    17. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Chacko George & Florian Kuhn, 2019. "Business Cycle Implications of Capacity Constraints under Demand Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 94-121, April.
    19. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2018. "The Scarring Effect of Asymmetric Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 283, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Larry G. Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Hard-to-Interpret Signals," Working Papers tecipa-634, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    21. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    22. David Berger & Joseph Vavra, 2017. "Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?," NBER Working Papers 23143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Shaowei Ke & Qi Zhang, 2020. "Randomization and Ambiguity Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1159-1195, May.
    24. Muzaffarjon Ahunov & Dilnovoz Abdurazzakova & Nurmukhammad Yusupov, 2019. "Who creates jobs in transition economies? The role of entrepreneurial risk preferences," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1876-1886.
    25. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; time varying volatility; asymmetric adjustment; skewness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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