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The Within-Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics of German Firms

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  • Sebastian Weber

    ()

  • Joerg Doepke

    ()

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    Abstract

    We analyse stylised facts for Germany’s business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank’s balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.

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    File URL: http://gulliver.econ.uni-hamburg.de/IWWT/homepage/qmwps/qm906.pdf
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    Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20609.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20609
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    Keywords: business cycles; firm growth; markov chains;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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    1. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    2. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    3. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, 05.
    4. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    5. Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2005. "The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20508, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    6. Quah, Danny T, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
    7. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
    8. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
    9. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August.
    10. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    11. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March.
    12. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Joseph A. Schumpeter, 1951. "Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 149-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.

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