Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility
We test whether there has been a "Great Moderation" of output volatility at the firm level. The multifactor residual model proposed by Pesaran (2006) is used to isolate the idiosyncratic component of firms' sales growth from macroeconomic developments. This methodology is applied to a balanced panel of about 1,200 German firms covering a 35-year period (1971-2005). Our research has three main findings. First, unconditional firm-level volatility and aggregate output volatility have seen similar downward trends. Second, conditional, idiosyncratic firm-level volatility does not exhibit a downward trend. Third, there is a positive link between growth and volatility at the firm level.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejeap|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cerqueiro, G.M. & Degryse, H.A. & Ongena, S., 2007.
"Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting,"
2007-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Cerqueiro, Geraldo & Degryse, Hans & Ongena, Steven, 2007. "Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cerqueiro, G.M. & Degryse, H.A. & Ongena, S., 2007. "Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting," Discussion Paper 2007-026, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Geraldo CERQUEIRO & Hans DEGRYSE & Steven ONGENA, 2007. "Rules versus discretion in loan rate setting," Working Papers Department of Economics ces0723, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2007. "Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 2091, CESifo Group Munich.
- Weber, Sebastian & Döpke, Jörg, 2006. "The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1331, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
- Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006.
"Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms,"
NBER Working Papers
12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded Versus Privately Held Firms," Working Papers 06-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Jean Imbs, 2006.
"Growth and Volatility,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006.
"The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ang, James S & Peterson, David R, 1985. " Return, Risk, and Yield: Evidence from Ex Ante Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 537-48, June.
- Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-65, May.
- Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009.
"VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-52, September.
- Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.