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The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis

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  • Christian Aßmann
  • Jens Hogrefe
  • Roman Liesenfeld

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically depends on the specification of the conditional mean we assume for our volatility analysis different time series models for GDP growth. We find across all specifications evidence for an output stabilization around 1993, after the downturn following the boom associated with the German reunification. However, the different GDP models lead to alternative characterizations of this stabilization : In a linear AR model it shows up as smaller shocks hitting the economy, while regime switching models reveal as further sources for a stabilization, a narrowing gap between growth rates during booms and recessions or flatter trajectories characterizing the GDP growth rates. Furthermore, it appears that the reunification interrupted an output stabilization emerging already around 1987.
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  • Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:653-679
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-008-0251-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    2. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Claudia Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2013. "Regional origins of employment volatility: evidence from German states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    5. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Buch Claudia M & Doepke Joerg & Stahn Kerstin, 2009. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, May.
    7. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Erik Klär, 2007. "Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 8-20.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle models; MCMC methods; Regime switching models; Structural breaks; C15; C22; C52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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