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Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland


  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Erik Klär


The article provides a short overview of approaches to business cycle dating - methods based on the observation of macroeconomic time series and their time relation (leading, coincident, and lagging) to aggregate economic activity, as well as econometric decomposition into trend and cycle components. Advantages and problems of both approaches are addressed. Subsequently, we examine indications of structural changes in national and international cyclic behaviour that could improve the precision of forecasting turning points in aggregate economic activity. In closing, we look at what conclusions can be drawn with a view to the current situation of the German economy, which is presently in the second year of a cyclical upswing. Der Beitrag liefert einen kurzen Überblick über alternative Methoden der Bestimmung von Konjunkturzyklen - die Ermittlung auf Grundlage vor-, gleich- und nachlaufender Zeitreihen gesamtwirtschaftlicher Variablen sowie die Zerlegung in Trend- und Zykluskomponenten mittels ökonometrischer Verfahren - und mit deren Anwendung verbundene Schwierigkeiten. Im Anschluss wird untersucht, inwieweit die Erfahrungen aus Jahrzehnten der Konjunkturbeobachtung sowie die Analyse struktureller Veränderungen bei nationalen Zyklen und internationalen Konjunkturverbünden Aufschluss geben können für die Prognose möglicher zyklischer Wendepunkte und konkret bei der Einschätzung der gegenwärtigen Lage in Deutschland.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Erik Klär, 2007. "Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 8-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
    3. Stamfort, Stefan, 2005. "Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    6. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
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    More about this item


    Business cycle dating; turning point prediction;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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