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Dem Konjunkturzyklus auf der Spur: zur Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Erik Klär

The article provides a short overview of approaches to business cycle dating - methods based on the observation of macroeconomic time series and their time relation (leading, coincident, and lagging) to aggregate economic activity, as well as econometric decomposition into trend and cycle components. Advantages and problems of both approaches are addressed. Subsequently, we examine indications of structural changes in national and international cyclic behaviour that could improve the precision of forecasting turning points in aggregate economic activity. In closing, we look at what conclusions can be drawn with a view to the current situation of the German economy, which is presently in the second year of a cyclical upswing. Der Beitrag liefert einen kurzen Überblick über alternative Methoden der Bestimmung von Konjunkturzyklen - die Ermittlung auf Grundlage vor-, gleich- und nachlaufender Zeitreihen gesamtwirtschaftlicher Variablen sowie die Zerlegung in Trend- und Zykluskomponenten mittels ökonometrischer Verfahren - und mit deren Anwendung verbundene Schwierigkeiten. Im Anschluss wird untersucht, inwieweit die Erfahrungen aus Jahrzehnten der Konjunkturbeobachtung sowie die Analyse struktureller Veränderungen bei nationalen Zyklen und internationalen Konjunkturverbünden Aufschluss geben können für die Prognose möglicher zyklischer Wendepunkte und konkret bei der Einschätzung der gegenwärtigen Lage in Deutschland.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 76 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 8-20

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-2
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