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Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

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  • Ms. Valerie Cerra
  • Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2003/048, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/048
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis: Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 1999/138, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
    5. Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1998/128, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia’s Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    8. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
    9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; growth rate; Asia; Crisis; Business Cycles; Recovery; Hong Kong; Indonesia; Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; output loss; x-axis data label; recession state; crisis-driven recession; recession phase; Consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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