In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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