Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain
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Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 37. This paper introduces two new business cycle stochastic indicator of the US economy, with a foolproof recession index.
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Citations
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Cited by:
- Sébastien Le Coent & Erwan Gautier & Benoît Bellone, 2006.
"Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?,"
Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
- Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
- Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
- Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009.
"Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
- Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
- Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
- Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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More about this item
Keywords
Business Cycle; Markov Switching; MSVAR; Real time data vintage; Coincident Indicators; Recession; NBER dating;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Statistics
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