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A further note on the three phases of the US business cycle

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  • Allan Layton
  • Daniel Smith

Abstract

Using a number of alternative approaches, Sichel (1994) demonstrated evidence supporting the notion that the US business cycle is best characterized as having three distinct phases, viz. contraction, followed by rapid expansion during the early stages of the recovery phase, followed by a period of more normal expansionary growth, with the cycle then repeating itself. This contrasts with the more usual expansion/contraction, two phase characterization but is more in keeping with the original notion of the business cycle as conceived by Burns and Mitchell (1946). Here an alternative approach is employed for shedding light on this issue. Following the original suggestion of Hamilton (1989, 1990, 1991), a simple nonlinear, three phase, regime switching Markov model is compared against its simpler two phase version to determine which version is statistically more consistent with the business cycle historical evidence. The evidence seems to clearly support the three phase characterization and that this characterization yields interesting information on business cycle dynamics which is necessarily missed by the two phase model formulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Layton & Daniel Smith, 2000. "A further note on the three phases of the US business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 1133-1143.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:9:p:1133-1143 DOI: 10.1080/000368400404272
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    Cited by:

    1. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2006. "Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-102.
    3. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
    4. Allan Layton & Daniel R. Smith, 2005. "Testing the Power of Leading Indicators to Predict Business Cycle Phase Changes," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 200, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    5. repec:eee:apmaco:v:251:y:2015:i:c:p:453-468 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Can the identification puzzle of Taiwan's turning points after 1990 be solved?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 174-195, January.
    7. Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 6457, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    9. Jesper Gregers Linaa, "undated". "Idiosyncrasy of Business Cycles Across EU Countries," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-08, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Kim, Woo Chang & Kim, Jang Ho & Mulvey, John M. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2015. "Focusing on the worst state for robust investing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.

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