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The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models

Author

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  • Bec, F.
  • Bouabdallah, O.
  • Ferrara, L.

Abstract

This paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov-Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the appropriate bounce-back function, if any, and iii) a suitable measure of the permanent impact of recessions. This approach is then applied to post-WWII quarterly growth rates of US, UK and French real GDPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:321
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
    2. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
    3. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
    4. Frederique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2209-2222.
    5. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11777 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The European Way Out of Recessions," THEMA Working Papers 2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    8. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-Switching models; bounce-back effects; asymmetric business cycles.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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