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The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit

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  • Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas
  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

Abstract

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex-ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 534-559, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:13:y:2015:i:3:p:534-559
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.12122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    2. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run," Working Papers 2016-28, CEPII research center.
    3. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus, 2017. "How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models," Staff Working Papers 17-32, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2018. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," NBER Working Papers 24355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Brave, Scott A. & Lopez, Jose A., 2017. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," Working Paper Series 2017-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2017. "What Drives Gross Flows in Equity and Investment Fund Shares in Luxembourg?," MPRA Paper 84200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jan 2018.
    9. Hetzel, Robert L., 2016. "What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?," Working Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.

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