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Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall

  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Reinhart, Vincent

In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we summarize some of the main findings of that paper, including that economic growth is notably slower in the decade following a macroeconomic disruption. We extend those results to provide evidence of several post-crisis “double dips” in the years following the crisis. A faltering of economic recovery is not uncommon after a severe financial shock, although this can often be ascribed to exogenous events.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24969/1/MPRA_paper_24969.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45192/1/MPRA_paper_24969.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24969.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24969
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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the Fall," NBER Working Papers 16334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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