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Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Reinhart, Vincent

Abstract

In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we summarize some of the main findings of that paper, including that economic growth is notably slower in the decade following a macroeconomic disruption. We extend those results to provide evidence of several post-crisis “double dips” in the years following the crisis. A faltering of economic recovery is not uncommon after a severe financial shock, although this can often be ascribed to exogenous events.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2010. "Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall," MPRA Paper 24969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24969
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    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    recession; unemployment; financial crisis; growth; external shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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