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When to Lean Against the Wind

Author

Listed:
  • Richter, Bj�rn
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Wachtel, Paul

Abstract

This paper shows that policy-makers can distinguish between good and bad credit booms with high accuracy and they can do so in real time. Evidence from 17 countries over nearly 150 years of modern financial history shows that credit booms that are accompanied by house price booms and a rising loan-to-deposit-ratio are much more likely to end in a systemic banking crisis. We evaluate the predictive accuracy for different classification models and show that the characteristics of the credit boom contain valuable information for sorting the data into good and bad booms. Importantly, we demonstrate that policy-makers have the ability to spot dangerous credit booms on the basis of data available in real time. We also show that these results are robust across alternative specifications and time-periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Richter, Bj�rn & Schularick, Moritz & Wachtel, Paul, 2017. "When to Lean Against the Wind," CEPR Discussion Papers 12188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12188
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking Crisis; Credit Booms; crisis prediction; macroprudential policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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