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When to Lean Against the Wind

Author

Listed:
  • Bjorn Richter
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Paul Wachtel

Abstract

This paper shows that policy-makers can distinguish between good and bad credit booms with high accuracy and they can do so in real time. Evidence from 17 countries over nearly 150 years of modern financial history shows that credit booms that are accompanied by house price booms and a rising loan-to-deposit-ratio are much more likely to end in a systemic banking crisis. We evaluate the predictive accuracy for different classification models and show that the characteristics of the credit boom contain valuable information for sorting the data into good and bad booms. Importantly, we demonstrate that policy-makers have the ability to spot dangerous credit booms on the basis of data available in real time. We also show that these results are robust across alternative specifications and time-periods.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bjorn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2018. "When to Lean Against the Wind," Working Papers 18-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:18-10
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    File URL: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/economics/docs/workingpapers/2018/WhentoLeanAgainsttheWind28March2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    3. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin, 2018. "Collateral booms and information depletion," Economics Working Papers 1622, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2019.
    4. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability," Working Paper 2018/5, Norges Bank.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. repec:bpj:pewipo:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:141-162:n:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter," IMFS Working Paper Series 133, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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