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After the fall

  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Vincent Reinhart

In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we summarize some of the main findings of that paper, including that economic growth is notably slower in the decade following a macroeconomic disruption. We extend those results to provide evidence of several post-crisis “double dips” in the years following the crisis. A faltering of economic recovery is not uncommon after a severe financial shock, although this can often be ascribed to exogenous events.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 17-60

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:2010:p:17-60
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
  9. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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