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Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Davis

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Adrienne Mack

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Wesley Phoa

    (The Capital Group Companies)

  • Anne Vandenabeele

    (The Capital Group Companies)

Abstract

A number of papers have shown that rapid growth in private sector credit is a strong predictor of a banking crisis. This paper will ask if credit growth is itself the cause of a crisis, or is it the combination of credit growth and external deficits? This paper estimates a probabilistic model to find the marginal effect of private sector credit growth on the probability of a banking crisis. The model contains an interaction term between credit growth and the level of the current account, so the marginal effect of private sector credit growth may itself be a function of the level of the current account. We find that the marginal effect of rising private sector debt levels depends on an economy's external position. When the current account is in balance, the marginal effect of an increase in debt is rather small. However, when the economy is running a sizable current account deficit, implying that any increase in the debt ratio is financed through foreign borrowing, this marginal effect is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Davis & Adrienne Mack & Wesley Phoa & Anne Vandenabeele, 2014. "Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account," Working Papers 292014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:292014
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    3. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    4. Alexander Guarín-López & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2016. "Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014306, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    6. Pascal Paul, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Zhai, Weiyang & Yoshida, Yushi, 2020. "Revisiting the Glick-Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries," MPRA Paper 99446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2018. "Bank lending, deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 31-47.
    10. Gaies, Brahim & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2019. "Banking crises in developing countries–What crucial role of exchange rate stability and external liabilities?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    11. Berrak Bahadir & Neven Valev, 2021. "Global Liquidity and Household Credit," Working Papers 2106, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
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    13. Gallegati, Marco & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2018. "Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: A global crisis index," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 190-205.
    14. Pascal Paul, 2018. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 583, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Serhat Yuksel & Mustafa Ozsari, 2016. "Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 3-14, December.
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    17. Nazli Toraganli & Hasan Murat Ertugrul, 2016. "Does credit composition matter for current account dynamics? Evidence from Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 1090-1100, November.
    18. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    19. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    20. Brahim Gaies, Khaled Guesmi, Thomas Porcher, Raphael Boroumand, 2020. "Financial instability and oil price fluctuations: evidence from oil exporting developing countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 55-71, June.
    21. Zhai, Weiyang, 2020. "Financial structure, capital openness and financial crisis," MPRA Paper 105457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking Crises; Credit Booms; Current Account;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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