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The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?

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  • Iana Liadze
  • Ray Barrell
  • Professor E. Philip Davis

Abstract

Given the magnitude of 'global imbalances' in the run-up to the subprime crisis, we test for an impact of the current account balance on the probability of banking crises in OECD countries since 1980. This variable has been neglected in most early warning models to date, despite its prominence in theory and in case studies of crises. We find that a current account variable is significant in a parsimonious logit model also featuring bank capital adequacy, liquidity and changes in house prices, thus showing the patterns immediately preceding the subprime crisis were not unprecedented. Our model, even if estimated over an earlier period such as 1980-2003, could have helped authorities to forecast the subprime crisis accurately and take appropriate regulatory measures to reduce its impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:351
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Banking Crises Early Warning Indicators; Perils of Inflation Targeting; China, Threat or Opportunity?
      by HistorySquared in HistorySquared on 2012-10-03 17:54:24

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    Cited by:

    1. Meilan Yan & Dalu Zhang & Maximilian J B Hall & Paul Turner, 2017. "How liquid are banks: Some evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 163-179, April.
    2. Sebastian Krug & Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2014. "The impact of Basel III on financial (in)stability: an agent-based credit network approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 1917-1932, December.
    3. Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Sari-Hassoun, Salah Eddine & Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Saraç, Mehmet, 2022. "What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis [¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corrient," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 33(1), pages 134-153, June.
    4. Oyadeyi, Olajide & Akinbobola, Temidayo, 2022. "Financial Development and the Current Account in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 118001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Naďa Blahová & Karel Brůna, 2017. "Omezení nabídky úvěru solventní otevřené ekonomiky v rámci implementace kapitálových požadavků Basel III [Credit Supply Constraint of Solvent Open Economy within Implementation of Basel III Capital," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 141-160.
    6. Vo, Quynh-Anh, 2021. "Interactions of capital and liquidity requirements: a review of the literature," Bank of England working papers 916, Bank of England.
    7. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    8. Ruud A. de Mooij & Mr. Michael Keen & Mr. Masanori Orihara, 2013. "Taxation, Bank Leverage, and Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Eduard Sariev & Guido Germano, 2020. "Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks for the estimation of the probability of default," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 311-328, February.
    10. William R. Cline, 2016. "Benefits and Costs of Higher Capital Requirements for Banks," Working Paper Series WP16-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Evaluating off-balance sheet exposures in banking crisis determination models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 357, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    12. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Brooke, Martin & Bush, Oliver & Edwards, Robert & Ellis, Jas & Francis, Bill & Harimohan, Rashmi & Neiss, Katharine & Siegert, Caspar, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper No. 35: Measuring the macroeconomic costs and benefits of higher UK bank capital requirements -," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 35, Bank of England.
    14. J. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate, 2016. "Financial performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging market economies over the global financial cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 288, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Bush, Oliver & Farrant, Katie & Wright, Michelle, 2011. "Financial Stability Paper No 13: Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 13, Bank of England.
    16. Meilin Yan & Maximilian J. B. Hall & Paul Turner, 2012. "How Liquid Are UK Banks?," Discussion Paper Series 2012_08, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2012.
    17. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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