IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddgw/288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging market economies over the global financial cycle

Author

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between financial performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging market economies not only in times of crises, but in general during crisis and non-crisis years over the global financial cycle. Using a panel framework with data for 119 emerging market economies at an annual frequency, we examine whether the relationship between performance and fundamentals varies in magnitude and/or switches sign between crisis and non-crisis years. We find that better macroeconomic fundamentals (such as a stronger net foreign asset positions and higher stocks of foreign exchange reserves) are associated with better financial performance not just during crisis episodes, but also during normal times. Quantitatively, the impact of fundamentals on performance is smaller during normal times than during crisis years, but works in the same direction and is statistically significant. The results are consistent with those of recent empirical studies on the link between financial performance and fundamentals during episodes of global financial stress, but generalizes the results to the global financial cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate, 2016. "Financial performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging market economies over the global financial cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 288, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:288
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2016/0288.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/gwp288?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    2. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    4. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 351, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    6. Ons Jedidi & Jean Sébastien Pentecote, 2015. "Robust Signals for Banking Crises," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1617-1629.
    7. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Benmelech, Efraim & Dvir, Eyal, 2013. "Does Short-Term Debt Increase Vulnerability to Crisis? Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 485-494.
    9. Chen Ray-Bing & Lee Kuo-Jung & Chen Yi-Chi & Chu Chi-Hsiang, 2017. "On the determinants of the 2008 financial crisis: a Bayesian approach to the selection of groups and variables," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    11. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    12. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020. "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    14. Kiley, Michael T., 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Dongwon Lee, 2020. "International Cooperation in Foreign Reserve Policies in the Presence of Competitive Hoarding," Working Papers 202011, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    16. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    18. Tanaka, Katsuyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Random forests-based early warning system for bank failures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 118-121.
    19. Vo, Quynh-Anh, 2021. "Interactions of capital and liquidity requirements: a review of the literature," Bank of England working papers 916, Bank of England.
    20. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate, 2017. "Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.