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International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

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Abstract

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During the taper tantrum, while controlling for the EMEs' economic fundamentals, financial conditions also deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) During the EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities. (5) However, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode; it also occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008 and, subsequently, during financial stress episodes related to the European sovereign crisis in 2011 and China's financial market stresses in 2015.

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  • Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbqu:rpa17-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bowman, David & Londono, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2015. "U.S. unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-59.
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    6. Prachi Mishra & Kenji Moriyama & Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 14/109, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Scott, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Peter Tillmann, "undated". "Tapering Talk on Twitter and the Transmission to Emerging Economies," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:311-325 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Geun-Young Kim & Hail Park & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals," Working Papers 2016-1, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. repec:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0068-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:ememar:v:38:y:2019:i:c:p:347-363 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:683-698 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tillman, Peter, 2016. "Uncertainty about Federal Reserve Policy and Its Transmission to Emerging Economies: Evidence from Twitter," ADBI Working Papers 592, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    11. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    12. Davis, Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," CAMA Working Papers 2015-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Scott Davis, J. & Zlate, Andrei, 2019. "Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 15-31.
    15. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:239-245 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    17. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different instruments and regulatory regimes," Working Papers 15/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    18. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:21-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN, 2016. "Quantitative Easing, Tapering And Stock Market Indices," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 5-23.
    20. repec:bpj:ajlecn:v:10:y:2019:i:2:p:13:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets," Working Papers 12/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market economies; financial spillovers; economic fundamentals; vulnerability index; depreciation pressure; taper tantrum; financial stress.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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