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International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

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  • Shaghil Ahmed
  • Brahima Coulibaly
  • Andrei Zlate

Abstract

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During the taper tantrum, while controlling for the EMEs' economic fundamentals, financial conditions also deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) During the EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities. (5) However, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode; it also occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008 and, subsequently, during financial stress episodes related to the European sovereign crisis in 2011 and China's financial market stresses in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Andrei Zlate, 2017. "International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbqu:rpa17-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Daehler & Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2020. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Spreads and Country-Specific Fundamentals During COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lee, Jieun & Chung, Kee H., 2018. "Foreign ownership and stock market liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 311-325.
    3. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Ines Buono & Flavia Corneli & Enrica Di Stefano, 2020. "Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1262, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 28079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Prachi Mishra & Papa N’Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2018. "Effects of Fed Announcements on Emerging Markets: What Determines Financial Market Reactions?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 732-762, December.
    7. Garbers, Chris & Liu, Guangling, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of loan-to-value and capital requirements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 683-698.
    8. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate, 2017. "Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Scott Davis, J. & Zlate, Andrei, 2019. "Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 15-31.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Cooray, Arusha, 2020. "Monetary policy and commodity markets: Unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Macroprudential policy and foreign interest rate shocks: A comparison of different instruments and regulatory regimes," Working Papers 15/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020. "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2020. "Gains from anchoring inflation expectations: Evidence from the taper tantrum shock," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Balli, Faruk & de Bruin, Anne & Chowdhury, Md Iftekhar Hasan, 2019. "Spillovers and the determinants in Islamic equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    15. Dobronogov,Anton & Knack,Stephen & Wilson,James Michael, 2020. "Moving Up the Ladder : An Analysis of IDA Graduation Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9208, The World Bank.
    16. Alqahtani Abdullah & Taillard Michael, 2019. "The Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock on GCC Stock Market Performance," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, August.
    17. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2020. "Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9181, The World Bank.
    18. Owusu Junior, Peterson & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Risks in emerging markets equities: Time-varying versus spatial risk analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    19. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets," Working Papers 12/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market economies; financial spillovers; economic fundamentals; vulnerability index; depreciation pressure; taper tantrum; financial stress.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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