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International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

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Listed:
  • Shaghil Ahmed
  • Brahima Coulibaly
  • Andrei Zlate

Abstract

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. (3) Controlling for economic fundamentals, we also find that, during the taper tantrum, financial conditions deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) For earlier episodes, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities during EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s. (5) That said, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode. Differences in economic fundamentals played a role in explaining the heterogeneous EME financial market responses during the global financial crisis of 2008, and the role of fundamentals appeared to progressively increase through the European crisis in 2011 and subsequently the 2013 taper tantrum.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Andrei Zlate, 2015. "International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1135
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2015.1135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    3. Ratna Sahay & Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios V Arvanitis & Hamid Faruqee & Papa M N'Diaye & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2014. "Emerging Market Volatility; Lessons from The Taper Tantrum," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/9, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Davis, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Peter Tillmann, "undated". "Tapering Talk on Twitter and the Transmission to Emerging Economies," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya Eksi, 2020. "What Drives Portfolio Flows to Turkey? The Dynamics and a Historical Accounting of the Flows," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2010, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Geun-Young Kim & Hail Park & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals," Working Papers 2016-1, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    7. Tillman, Peter, 2016. "Uncertainty about Federal Reserve Policy and Its Transmission to Emerging Economies: Evidence from Twitter," ADBI Working Papers 592, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    9. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    10. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," CAMA Working Papers 2015-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Konopczak, Karolina & Konopczak, Michał, 2017. "Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 239-245.
    12. Galloppo, Giuseppe & Paimanova, Viktoriia, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on BRIC markets asset prices during global financial crises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 21-49.
    13. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN, 2016. "Quantitative Easing, Tapering And Stock Market Indices," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 5-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market economies; financial spillovers; economic fundamentals; vulnerability; depreciation pressure; taper tantrum; financial stress;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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