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The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?

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  • McQuade, Peter
  • Schmitz, Martin

Abstract

This paper highlights a recent ‘great moderation’ in global capital flows, characterised by smaller volumes and lower volatility of cross-border transactions. However, there are substantial differences across countries and regions which we analyse by comparing the level of international capital flows observed in 2005–06, immediately prior to the onset of the global financial crisis, to the post-crisis period of 2013–14, when global flows arguably settled at a ‘new normal’. We find that since the pre-crisis period, gross capital inflows recovered more for economies with smaller pre-crisis external and internal imbalances, lower per capita income, improving growth expectations, a less severe impact of the global financial crisis and less stringent macroprudential policy. On the asset side, countries with a more accommodative monetary policy, a milder impact of the crisis and oil exporters managed to increase gross capital outflows in the post-crisis period.

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  • McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 188-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pa:p:188-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.027
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    5. Lorenz Emter & Martin Schmitz & Marcel Tirpák, 2019. "Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: What is driving the great retrenchment?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 287-326, May.
    6. Herzberg, Valerie & McQuade, Peter, 2018. "International bank flows and bank business models since the crisis," Financial Stability Notes 5/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, June.
    9. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    11. Eleonora Cavallaro & Eleonora Cutrini, 2018. "Institutional quality and cross-border asset trade: are banks less worried about diversification abroad?," Working Papers 186, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    12. Krogstrup, Signe & Tille, Cédric, 2018. "Foreign currency bank funding and global factors," Kiel Working Papers 2104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    13. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    14. Everett, Mary & McQuade, Peter & O’Grady, Michael, 2020. "Bank business models as a driver of cross-border activities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    16. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2018. "Benchmarking Portfolio Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 527-563, September.
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    19. Ramesh Bommadevara & Akshay Sakharkar, 2021. "Do Good Institutions and Economic Uncertainty Matter to Foreign Direct Investment?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(6), pages 471-487, June.
    20. Herzberg, Valerie & McQuade, Peter, 2018. "International bank flows and bank business models since the crisis," Financial Stability Notes 05-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International capital flows; Global financial crisis; External imbalances; Monetary policy; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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