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Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update


  • Rose, Andrew K.
  • Spiegel, Mark M.


We update (Rose and Spiegel, forthcoming) and (Rose and Spiegel, 2010) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:3:p:309-324

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. AndrewK. Rose & MarkM. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    3. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
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    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    8. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven & Deniz O Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/44, International Monetary Fund.
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    11. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, April.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Growth Recession Current account GDP Empirical Data Cross-section Early warning;

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General


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