IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v31y2012i1p42-59.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact

Author

Listed:
  • Berkmen, S. Pelin
  • Gelos, Gaston
  • Rennhack, Robert
  • Walsh, James P.

Abstract

What explains differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets? Using cross-country regressions to assess the factors driving the growth performance in 2009 (compared to pre-crisis forecasts for that year), we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in the growth impact. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems, stronger credit growth, and more short-term debt tended to suffer a larger effect on economic activity, although the relative importance of these factors differs across country groups. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with more open countries affected more strongly and those exporting food commodities being less hard hit. Exchange-rate flexibility helped in buffering the impact of the shock, particularly for emerging markets. There is also some evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were impacted less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:1:p:42-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611001550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    2. Deepak Mishra & Mrs. Poonam Gupta & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/230, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    5. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    6. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    8. Valerie Cerra & Ugo Panizza & Sweta C. Saxena, 2013. "International Evidence On Recovery From Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 424-439, April.
    9. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    10. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
    11. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "Crisis and Recovery: Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/242, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2010. "Weathering the financial storm: The importance of fundamentals and flexibility," Economics Working Papers 2010-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    4. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    5. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    6. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:2:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mr. Martin Schindler & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/027, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Chinazzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier A. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2013. "Post-mortem examination of the international financial network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1692-1713.
    9. Claessens, Stijn & Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-387.
    10. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    12. Armand FOUEJIEU AZANGUE, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 370, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    14. Dwyer, Shane & Tan, Chih Ming, 2014. "Hits and runs: Determinants of the cross-country variation in the severity of impact from the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 69-90.
    15. Mr. Mico Mrkaic & Mr. Malhar S Nabar & Ms. Wenjie Chen, 2019. "The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2019/083, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jun, Doobae & Ahn, Changmo & Kim, Gwangil, 2017. "Analysis of the global financial crisis using statistical moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 47-52.
    17. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    18. Mirzaei, Ali & Grosse, Robert, 2019. "The interaction of quantity and quality of finance: Did it make industries more resilient to the recent global financial crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 493-512.
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    21. Wenwen Sheng & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2017. "Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 461-498, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global crisis; Transmission of shocks; Emerging markets; Cross–country linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:1:p:42-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.