IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc15/113022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Enders, Zeno
  • Peter, Alexandra

Abstract

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 spread through different channels from its origin in the United States to large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channels in a unified framework and quantify their relative importance for this transmission. Specifically, we employ a DSGE model of an open economy with an internationally operating banking sector. We investigate the transmission of the crisis via the collapse of export demand and through losses in the value of cross-border asset holdings. Calibrated to German and UK data, the model attributes around half of the observed maximum output decline in Germany to these channels, and 87% for the UK. While the trade channel explains 30% of the empirical output decline in both countries, the financial channel plays a much larger role in the UK than in Germany. The UK's larger vulnerability to financial shocks is due to higher foreign-asset holdings, which simultaneously serve as an automatic stabilizer in case of plummeting foreign demand. The transmission via the financial channel triggers a much longer-lasting recession relative to the trade channel, resulting in larger cumulated output losses and a prolonged crisis particularly in the UK. Stricter bank capital regulations would have deepened the initial slump while simultaneously speeding up the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Zeno & Peter, Alexandra, 2015. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113022, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/113022/1/VfS_2015_pid_665.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    2. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 137-154.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    6. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    7. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    9. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    10. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    11. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
    12. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    13. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2959-3004, December.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot, 2013. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80009, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Paolo Angelini & Laurent Clerc & Vasco Cúrdia & Leonardo Gambacorta & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Roberto Motto & Werner Roeger & Skander Van den Heuvel & Jan Vlček, 2015. "Basel III: Long-term Impact on Economic Performance and Fluctuations," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(2), pages 217-251, March.
    17. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    18. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
    19. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2423-2441, June.
    20. Puri, Manju & Rocholl, Jörg & Steffen, Sascha, 2011. "Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 556-578, June.
    21. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2011. "Global Crises and Equity Market Contagion," NBER Working Papers 17121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2014. "Quantifying Confidence," NBER Working Papers 20807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    25. Viral V. Acharya & Irvind Gujral & Nirupama Kulkarni & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Dividends and Bank Capital in the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," NBER Working Papers 16896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    27. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    28. repec:fth:nystbu:92-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
    30. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    31. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    32. Brahima Coulibaly & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2011. "Trade credit and international trade during the 2008-09 global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    34. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    35. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    36. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    37. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    38. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    39. Jonathan A. Parker & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2009. "Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 399-405, May.
    40. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    41. Schmidt, Torsten & Zwick, Lina, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 361, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    42. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    43. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    44. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    45. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
    46. di Mauro, Filippo & Forster, Katrin & Lima, Ana, 2010. "The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 119, European Central Bank.
    47. Floyd, Eric & Li, Nan & Skinner, Douglas J., 2015. "Payout policy through the financial crisis: The growth of repurchases and the resilience of dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 299-316.
    48. Scott Davis, 2010. "The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 66, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    49. Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig, 2013. "The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9929.
    50. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    51. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    52. Aiyar, Shekhar, 2011. "How did the crisis in international funding markets affect bank lending? Balance sheet evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 424, Bank of England.
    53. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, April.
    54. Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2014. "Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 60-89, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-02-22 15:23:10

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:4:p:856-890 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.