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The great collapse in value added trade

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  • Stehrer, Robert
  • Nagengast, Arne J.

Abstract

This paper studies the great collapse in value added trade using a structural decomposition analysis. We show that changes in vertical specialisation accounted for almost half of the great trade collapse, while the previous literature on gross trade has mainly focused on final expenditure, inventory adjustment and adverse credit supply conditions. The decline in international production sharing during the crisis may partially account for the observed decrease in global trade elasticities in recent years. Second, we find that the drop in the overall level of demand accounted for roughly a quarter of the decline in value added exports while just under one third was due to compositional changes in final demand. Finally, we demonstrate that the dichotomy between services and manufacturing sectors observed in gross exports during the great trade collapse is not apparent in value added trade data. JEL Classification: F1, F2, C67, R15

Suggested Citation

  • Stehrer, Robert & Nagengast, Arne J., 2015. "The great collapse in value added trade," Working Paper Series 1833, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151833
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    1. Ariell Reshef & Gianluca Santoni, 2019. "Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-16, CEPII research center.
    2. E. Dhyne & C. Duprez & C. Fuss, 2015. "Main CompNet research results," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 103-116, December.
    3. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2018. "Structural Change in Times of Increasing Openness," wiiw Working Papers 143, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2018. "What Place does Luxembourg hold in Global Value Chains?," MPRA Paper 86235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Buelens, Christian & Tirpák, Marcel, 2017. "Reading the Footprints: how foreign investors shape countries' participation in global value chains," Working Paper Series 2060, European Central Bank.
    6. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    7. Łukasz Ambroziak, 2017. "Decomposition of Poland's Bilateral Trade Imbalances by Value Added Content," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 5(2), pages 51-69.
    8. Minjung Kim, 2022. "Trade and employment volatility of firms during the global financial crisis and post-crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2091-2109, May.
    9. Stefan Pahl & Clara Brandi & Jakob Schwab & Frederik Stender, 2022. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID‐19 on developing countries through global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 539-560, February.
    10. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    11. Martin Lábaj, 2017. "Štruktúrna dekompozícia globálnych hodnotových reťazcov: slovenská ekonomika v medzinárodnom porovnaní [Structural Decomposition of Global Value Chains: Slovak Economy in an International Context]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 562-582.
    12. Haoliang Zhu, 2019. "A quantitative analysis of global value chains: why has domestic value-added of China’s exports increased?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 403-423, August.
    13. Pahl, Stefan & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob & Stender, Frederik, 2020. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    14. Van Cauwenberge, Annelies & Vancauteren, Mark & Braekers, Roel & Vandemaele, Sigrid, 2019. "International trade, foreign direct investments, and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 361-386.
    15. Gregor Gonza & Anže Burger, 2017. "Subjective Well-Being During the 2008 Economic Crisis: Identification of Mediating and Moderating Factors," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1763-1797, December.
    16. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great trade collapse; input-output tables; Structural decomposition analysis; Trade in value added; Vertical specialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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