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The great collapse in value added trade

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  • Stehrer, Robert
  • Nagengast, Arne J.

Abstract

This paper studies the great collapse in value added trade using a structural decomposition analysis. We show that changes in vertical specialisation accounted for almost half of the great trade collapse, while the previous literature on gross trade has mainly focused on final expenditure, inventory adjustment and adverse credit supply conditions. The decline in international production sharing during the crisis may partially account for the observed decrease in global trade elasticities in recent years. Second, we find that the drop in the overall level of demand accounted for roughly a quarter of the decline in value added exports while just under one third was due to compositional changes in final demand. Finally, we demonstrate that the dichotomy between services and manufacturing sectors observed in gross exports during the great trade collapse is not apparent in value added trade data. JEL Classification: F1, F2, C67, R15

Suggested Citation

  • Stehrer, Robert & Nagengast, Arne J., 2015. "The great collapse in value added trade," Working Paper Series 1833, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151833
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    3. Gabriele di Filippo, 2018. "What place does Luxembourg hold in global value chains?," BCL working papers 120, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Haoliang Zhu, 2019. "A quantitative analysis of global value chains: why has domestic value-added of China’s exports increased?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 403-423, August.
    5. Martin Lábaj, 2017. "Štruktúrna dekompozícia globálnych hodnotových reťazcov: slovenská ekonomika v medzinárodnom porovnaní [Structural Decomposition of Global Value Chains: Slovak Economy in an International Context]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 562-582.
    6. E. Dhyne & C. Duprez & C. Fuss, 2015. "Main CompNet research results," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 103-116, December.
    7. Pahl, Stefan & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob & Stender, Frederik, 2020. "Cling together, swing together: The contagious effects of COVID-19 on developing countries through global value chains," Discussion Papers 21/2020, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE).
    8. Van Cauwenberge, Annelies & Vancauteren, Mark & Braekers, Roel & Vandemaele, Sigrid, 2019. "International trade, foreign direct investments, and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 361-386.
    9. Łukasz Ambroziak, 2017. "Decomposition of Poland's Bilateral Trade Imbalances by Value Added Content," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 5(2), pages 51-69.
    10. Ariell Reshef & Gianluca Santoni, 2019. "Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-16, CEPII research center.
    11. Gregor Gonza & Anže Burger, 2017. "Subjective Well-Being During the 2008 Economic Crisis: Identification of Mediating and Moderating Factors," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1763-1797, December.
    12. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560, September.
    13. Buelens, Christian & Tirpák, Marcel, 2017. "Reading the Footprints: how foreign investors shape countries' participation in global value chains," Working Paper Series 2060, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great trade collapse; input-output tables; Structural decomposition analysis; Trade in value added; Vertical specialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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