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Decomposing the great trade collapse : products, prices, and quantities in the 2008-2009 crisis

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  • Haddad, Mona
  • Harrison, Ann
  • Hausman, Catherine

Abstract

The authors identifies a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that they hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, they decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When the authors aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative, in most cases price changes moved in the opposite direction. Consequently, within manufacturing, there is some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that supply side frictions played a role. For the United States, price increases were most significant in sectors which are typically credit constrained.

Suggested Citation

  • Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann & Hausman, Catherine, 2011. "Decomposing the great trade collapse : products, prices, and quantities in the 2008-2009 crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5749, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin, 2010. "The Vulnerability Of Sub-Saharan Africa To The Financial Crisis: The Case Of Trade," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/15, European University Institute.
    3. Bown, Chad P., 2009. "The global resort to antidumping, safeguards, and other trade remedies amidst the economic crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5051, The World Bank.
    4. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    5. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    6. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    7. Malouche, Mariem, 2009. "Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008 - a World Bank survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5138, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2015. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 231147, American Association of Wine Economists.
    2. Wagner, Joachim, 2012. "The Microstructure of the Great Export Collapse in German Manufacturing Industries, 2008/2009," IZA Discussion Papers 6393, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    4. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi, 2017. "Factor Decomposition of Japan's Trade Balance," Discussion papers 17042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Wagner, Joachim, 2013. "The granular nature of the great export collapse in German manufacturing industries, 2008/2009," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-21.
    6. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," NBER Working Papers 17594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ichiro Tokutsu & Kazuo Ogawa & Mika Saito, 2012. "Japan out of the Lost Decade; Divine Wind or Firms’ Effort?," IMF Working Papers 12/171, International Monetary Fund.
    8. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    10. Okubo, Toshihiro & Kimura, Fukunari & Teshima, Nozomu, 2014. "Asian fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 114-127.
    11. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    12. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2012. "The influence of financial leverage of firms on their international trading activities," MPRA Paper 35765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. David Hummels & Kwan Yong Lee, 2017. "The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: Micro Evidence and An Application," NBER Working Papers 23338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2014. "Evolution of Machinery Production Networks: Linkage of North America with East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(3), pages 121-160, Fall.
    15. Ran Jing, 2011. "The Collapse Speed of China's Exports in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3584, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg & Neiman, Brent, 2012. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008–09," Scholarly Articles 11988099, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. ANDO Mitsuyo & KIMURA Fukunari, 2012. "International Production Networks and Domestic Operations of Japanese Manufacturing Firms: Normal periods and the Global Financial Crisis," Discussion papers 12047, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "How did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Networks? The Global Financial Crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 261-287, September.
    19. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2016. "Contractual Imperfections and the Impact of Crises on Trade: Evidence from Industry-Level Data," Working Papers 2016-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markets and Market Access; Access to Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Commodities;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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