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Time to ship during financial crises

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman
  • José de Sousa
  • Philippe Martin
  • Thierry Mayer

Abstract

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "Time to ship during financial crises," Working Papers 2012-25, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 119-137.
    2. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    3. Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2012. "Financing time to trade: Evidence from French firms," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00677343, HAL.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    5. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    6. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    7. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00677343 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    9. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    10. Diez, Federico J. & Mora, Jesse & Spearot, Alan C., 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2013. "Are clusters more resilient in crises? Evidence from French exporters in 2008-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 9667, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: the Case of Trade," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i, Sciences Po.
    13. Bouët, Antoine & Vaubourg, Anne-Gaël, 2016. "Financial constraints and international trade with endogenous mode of competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-194.
    14. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    15. Broll, Udo & Jauer, Julia, 2014. "How international trade is affected by the financial crisis: The gravity trade equation," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    16. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 119-137.
    17. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    18. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2016. "Contractual Imperfections and the Impact of Crises on Trade: Evidence from Industry-Level Data," Working Papers 2016-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-to-ship; Financial crises; international trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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