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Time to ship during financial crises

  • Berman, Nicolas
  • de Sousa, José
  • Martin, Philippe
  • Mayer, Thierry

We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9089.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9089
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  1. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9261, Sciences Po.
  2. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  15. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View," Working Papers 616, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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  17. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," Working Papers w200909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  18. Martin, Julien, 2012. "Markups, quality, and transport costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 777-791.
  19. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Márcio Valério Ronci, 2004. "Trade Finance and Trade Flows; Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises," IMF Working Papers 04/225, International Monetary Fund.
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  23. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
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