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Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises

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  • Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows in countries undergoing financial and balance of payments crises. Most of the countries that had a major crisis had a significant trade contraction, while trade-related finance declined sharply. However, trade may also be affected by other variables such as world demand, domestic demand, banking crises, changes in export and import prices, and real exchange rate depreciation. To estimate the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows, we estimate import and export volume equations including explicitly trade financing as an explanatory variable in addition to the usual variables such as relative prices and income. We conclude that constrained trade finance is a factor in explaining both export and import volumes in the short-run. A fall in external trade finance explains a relatively small part of the trade loss during crises, while a fall in trade financing in connection with domestic banking crisis can lead to a substantial loss of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci, 2004. "Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises," IMF Working Papers 2004/225, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    2. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    3. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    4. Reza Y Siregar & C.S. Lim, Vincent, 2011. "Real Sector Propogation of the Recent Global Financial Crisis," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp82.
    5. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    6. Marcel Kohler & Adrian Saville, 2011. "Measuring the Impact of Trade Finance on South African Export Flows," Working Papers 232, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    8. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2013. "Measuring financial stress in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 370-383.
    9. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    10. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Goohoon Kwon, 2009. "Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data," IMF Working Papers 2009/139, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Sangyeon Hwang & Hyejoon Im, 2017. "International Trade Finance and Exports: Evidence from Korean Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance Instruments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 319-346, April.

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