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A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Flávio Vieira

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-05/cesifo1_wp3061.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3061.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3061
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  16. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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  19. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
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  22. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  23. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2008. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-07, CEPII research center.
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