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A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Flávio Vieira

Abstract

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, 2010. "A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3061, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3061
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run economic growth; real exchange rate misalignment; panel data analysis and System GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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