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The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe

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  • Alessio Ciarlone

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

In this paper, I provide evidence about the impact that changes in certain indicators of financial development have on economic growth in a sample of 19 countries of Emerging Europe. Real per capita GDP growth, bank credit to the private sector, stock market capitalization and the outstanding stock of international debt securities – along with a series of other traditional determinants of economic development – are found to be co-integrated. By means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationship between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis points to the existence of non-linearities. There appears to be an inverted U-shaped relationship between bank credit to the private sector and economic growth. By contrast, both domestic stock market capitalization and the stock of international debt securities display a more traditional positive and monotone relationship with economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_521_19
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    finance; economic growth; pooled mean group estimator; threshold effect; dynamic panel threshold; non-monotonicity; emerging Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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