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Is the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle Income Countries

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  • Nahla Samargandi
  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Sugata Ghosh

Abstract

We revisit the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle income countries over the 1980-2008 period, using pooled mean group estimator in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting. We show that financial development does not have a linear positive long-run impact on economic growth in this sample. When we consider a non-linear relationship between financial development and growth, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. In the short-run, the relationship is insignificant. This finding suggests that middle income countries face a threshold point after which financial development no longer contributes to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nahla Samargandi & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2014. "Is the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 4743, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4743
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial development; economic growth; heterogeneous panels; pooled mean group estimation; non-monotonicity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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