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Output and inflation in the long run

Author

Listed:
  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • John S. Irons
  • Ralph W. Tryon

Abstract

Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis-specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G-7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log-level of output are cointegrated, thus rejecting the existence of a long-run relation between output growth and inflation. Typically, output and inflation are positively related in these cointegrating relationships: a price markup model helps interpret this surprising feature.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2000. "Output and inflation in the long run," International Finance Discussion Papers 687, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Economic development;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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