Output and inflation in the long run
Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis-specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G-7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log-level of output are cointegrated, thus rejecting the existence of a long-run relation between output growth and inflation. Typically, output and inflation are positively related in these cointegrating relationships: a price markup model helps to interpret this surprising feature. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
- Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997.
"Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-92, July-Aug..
- Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 1996. "Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Working Papers 9637, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 1996.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991.
"A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
609, The World Bank.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, .
"Stock markets, banks and economic growth ,"
CERF Discussion Paper Series
95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "Cross-country studies of growth and policy : methodological, conceptual, and statistical problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 608, The World Bank.
- Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
- Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993.
"German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes,"
NBER Working Papers
4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
- Robert J. Barro, 1996.
"Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study,"
NBER Working Papers
5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, March.
- Clark, Todd E, 1997.
"Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 70-81, January.
- Todd E. Clark, 1993. "Cross-country evidence on long run growth and inflation," Research Working Paper 93-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1990.
"An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 275-292, March.
- Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1993.
"Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 512-541, September.
- Malcolm D. Knight & Delano Villanueva & Norman Loayza, 1992. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth; A Panel Data Approach," IMF Working Papers 92/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 2000.
"Inflation and the great ratios: Long term evidence from the U.S,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, February.
- Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Inflation and the great ratios: long-term evidence from the U.S," International Finance Discussion Papers 628, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- J. D. Sargan, 1980. "A Model of Wage-Price Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 97-112.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996.
"Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
- Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1993. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," International Finance Discussion Papers 440, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Levine, Ross, 1998.
"The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
- Ross Levine, 1998. "The legal environment, banks, and long-run economic growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 596-620.
- J. D. Sargan, 1980. "The Consumer Price Equation in the Post War British Economy: An Exercise in Equation Specification Testing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 113-135.
- Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:3:p:241-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.