IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/tuddps/0900.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The empirics of trade and growth: Where are the policy recommendations?

Author

Listed:
  • Wälde, Klaus
  • Wood, Christina

Abstract

Existing literature repeatedly documented a strong correlation between trade and growth. It has also shown a causal effect of imports (though not necessarily exports) on growth in simultaneous equation models but to a lesser extent in Granger-causality tests. Export and import taxes have sometimes been found to negatively affect growth. Drawing policy conclusions from these general findings for a particular country is difficult not only because of the contradictory results but also because of potential second best world effects and the implied endogeneity of trade policy. Policy recommendations for a specific country require a careful analysis of market and institutional arrangements and can not be based on the existing cross-country literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Wälde, Klaus & Wood, Christina, 2000. "The empirics of trade and growth: Where are the policy recommendations?," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 09/00, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/48138/1/323871860.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    3. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    4. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    5. Magnus Blomström & Ari Kokko & Mario Zejan, 2000. "Multinational Corporations and Spillovers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 8, pages 101-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Daniele Archibugi & Jonathan Michie, 1998. "Technical Change, Growth and Trade: New Departures in Institutional Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 313-332, July.
    7. Tang, Paul J. G. & Walde, Klaus, 2001. "International competition, growth and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1439-1459, August.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Beverly J. Lapham, 1994. "The Stability of Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 299-305.
    9. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Technology and trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1279-1337, Elsevier.
    10. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    13. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    14. Eric A. Hanushek & Dongwook Kim, 1995. "Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Heng-fu Zou, 1996. "Exports, Foreign Technology Imports, and Long-run Growth," CEMA Working Papers 477, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    17. Walz, Uwe, 1998. "Does an enlargement of a common market stimulate growth and convergence?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 297-321, August.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    19. Rodrik, Rani, 1995. "Trade and industrial policy reform," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 45, pages 2925-2982, Elsevier.
    20. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Trade Strategy, Investment and Exports: Another Look at East Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 1305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    23. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
    24. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 1999. "Exporting and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 7135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
    27. Vernon Ruttan, 1998. "The new growth theory and development economics: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 1-26.
    28. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    29. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    30. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    31. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    32. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    33. Richard A. Brecher, 1974. "Minimum Wage Rates and the Pure Theory of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 88(1), pages 98-116.
    34. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    35. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    36. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-973, October.
    37. Pomfret, Richard, 1989. "The Economics of Voluntary Export Restraint Agreements," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 199-211.
    38. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    39. Bernd Kempa & Michael Nelles, 1999. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
    40. Bandara, Jayatilleke S, 1991. "Computable General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy Analysis in LDCs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 3-69.
    41. Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Trade, Distortions, and Long-Run Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 299-328, June.
    42. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    43. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    44. Lucas Bretschger & Thomas M. Steger, 2004. "The dynamics of economic integration: Theory and policy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 119-134, January.
    45. Lucas Bretschger, 1999. "original: Knowledge diffusion and the development of regionsKnowledge diffusion and the development of regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 33(3), pages 251-268.
    46. Pack, Howard, 1988. "Industrialization and trade," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 333-380, Elsevier.
    47. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    48. Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2002. "How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 57-80, March.
    49. Nancy L. Stokey, 1991. "Human Capital, Product Quality, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 587-616.
    50. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    51. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    52. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    53. Colin Bradford & Naomi Chakwin, 1993. "Alternative Explanations of the Trade-Output Correlation in the East Asian Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
    54. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
    55. Bee Yan Aw & Sukkyun Chung & Mark J. Roberts, 1998. "Productivity and the Decision to Export: Micro Evidence from Taiwan and South Korea," NBER Working Papers 6558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    57. repec:bla:jecsur:v:11:y:1997:i:2:p:163-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    58. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:3:p:247-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. "Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-144, June.
    60. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:3:p:313-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    61. Kohli, Inderjit & Singh, Nirvikar, 1989. "Exports and growth : Critical minimum effort and diminishing returns," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 391-400, April.
    62. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
    63. Bhagwati, Jagdish, 1994. "Free Trade: Old and New Challenges," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 231-246, March.
    64. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
    65. Walde, Klaus, 1999. "A Model of Creative Destruction with Undiversifiable Risk and Optimising Households," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 156-171, March.
    66. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. "Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    67. Walz, Uwe, 1997. "Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three-County Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 492-507, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Koshiyama & Denilson Alencastro & Adelar Fochezatto, 2007. "International Trade and Economic Growth in Latin America: a Granger Causality Analysis with Panel Data," EcoMod2007 23900046, EcoMod.
    2. Guisan, M.C. & Exposito, P., 2005. "Industry and Foreign Trade in India, China and OECD countries: an analysis of causality, 1960-2002," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 5-16.
    3. Wälde, Klaus, 2000. "Does trade cause growth? A policy perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/00, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    4. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    5. World Bank, 2002. "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Developing Exports to Promote Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 15422, The World Bank Group.
    6. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2004. "Trade agreements and trade flows: Estimating the effect of free trade agreements on trade flows with an application to the European Union," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 214, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Grieben, Wolf-Heimo & Sener, Fuat, 2009. "Globalization, rent protection institutions, and going alone in freeing trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1042-1065, November.
    8. Mamoon, Dawood & S. Murshed, Mansoob, 2005. "Does Growth Respond to a Good Trade Policy?," MPRA Paper 82017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rendón Obando, Hernando & Ramírez Franco, Luz Dary, 2017. "Impacto de la inversión extranjera directa y del grado de apertura de la economía sobre el crecimiento económico para América Latina 1980-2010/Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Openness Degree o," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 217-244, Enero.
    10. Guisan, M.C. & Exposito, P., 2006. "Production by sector in China, India and OECD Countries, 1985-2005," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    11. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "EU integration and its impact on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/2017, pages 1-38.
    12. Nursini Nursini, 2017. "Effect of Fiscal Policy and Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Indonesia: 1990-2015," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 358-364.
    13. Mamoon, Dawood, 2017. "Government Regulation and Policy trumps Courts in determining Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 82454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "Österreich und die europäische Integration," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 86-126.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    2. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    3. Charles Ackah, & Oliver Morrissey, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation is Good for You if You are Rich," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fernandes, Ana M., 2007. "Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 52-71, March.
    6. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    8. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
    10. Sinem Pınar Gürel & Aykut Lenger, 2016. "The Nonlinear Analysis of External Dynamics on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(1), pages 57-68, April.
    11. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster & David Greenaway, 2001. "Institutions and Structural Unemployment: North-South Trade, Openness and Growth," Vienna Economics Papers 0108, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    12. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Can openness be an engine of sustained high growth rates and inflation?: Evidence from Japan and Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 228-240.
    13. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    14. William Darity & Lewis S. Davis, 2005. "Growth, trade and uneven development," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(1), pages 141-170, January.
    15. Mr. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/030, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Openness, growth, and inflation: Evidence from South Korea before the economic crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 738-757, October.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    20. Niclas Berggren & Henrik Jordahl, 2005. "Does free trade really reduce growth? Further testing using the economic freedom index," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 99-114, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pltudde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.