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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

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Listed:
  • Philippe Aghion

    (Harvard University & NBERute & CEPR)

  • Philippe Baccheta

    (Study Center Gerzensee, Swiss Finance Institute & CEPR)

  • Romain Ranciere

    (IMF Research Department)

  • Kenneth Rogoff

    (Harvard University & NBER)

Abstract

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on the long-term rate of productivity growth, but the e¤ect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of ?nancial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0616
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate regime; financial development; growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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