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Evaluation of Currency Regimes: The Unique Role of Sudden Stops

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  • Assaf Razin
  • Yona Rubinstein

Abstract

This paper tackles two established puzzles in international macroeconomics literature. The first is the lack of systematic difference in the macroeconomic performance across exchange rate regimes. The second is the absence of a clear empirical relationship between macroeconomic performance and capital-account liberalization. We suggest that both may appear because empirical methodologies fail to account for a latent economic "crisis state," influenced by exchange-rate and capital account regimes, and to allow the effects of a policy regime on growth to depend on whether the economy is in a crisis-prone latent state. In practice, we model and estimate the latent state of the economy as a crisis probability. In the framework we propose, exchange rate and capital market liberalization regimes can have both a direct effect on short-term growth, and an indirect effect on growth that is channelled through their effects on the crisis probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2005. "Evaluation of Currency Regimes: The Unique Role of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11785
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 428, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    4. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
    5. Chrysost Bangake & Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nabil Jedlane, 2006. "Régimes de change pour les petits pays," Post-Print halshs-00225016, HAL.
    6. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
    7. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Filippo Gori & Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises," OECD Economic Policy Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
    8. Hui Tong & Assaf Razin & Itay Goldstein, 2007. "Systemic Liquidity and the Composition of Foreign Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," 2007 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Aaron Tornell, "undated". "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth (March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 408, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Kenza Benhima, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 501-529, July.
    11. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2011. "Revisit Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2237-2249.
    12. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
    13. Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2008. "Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, December.
    14. Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil & Özmen, Erdal, 2008. "Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2561-2564.
    15. Levan Efremidze & Akinori Tomohara, 2011. "Have the Implications of Twin Deficits Changed?: Sudden Stops over Decades," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(1), pages 66-76, February.
    16. Chrysost Bangake & Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nabil Jedlane, 2006. "Régimes de change pour les petits pays," Post-Print halshs-00225016, HAL.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:66-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chrysost Bangake & Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nabil Jedlane, 2006. "Régimes de change pour les petits pays," Post-Print halshs-00225016, HAL.
    19. Chrysost Bangake & Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nabil Jedlane, 2006. "Régimes de change pour les petits pays," Post-Print halshs-00225016, HAL.
    20. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2008. "Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Outflows," NBER Working Papers 13723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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