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The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

    ()

  • Santiago Téllez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamizar

    ()

Abstract

The adoption of a managed regime assumes that interventions are relatively successful. However, while some authors consider that foreign exchange interventions are ineffective, arguing that domestic and foreign assets are close substitutes, others advocate their use and maintain that their effects can even last for months. There is also a lack of consensus on the related question of how to intervene. Are dirty interventions more powerful than pre-announced ones? This paper compares the effects of day-to-day interventions with discretionary interventions by combining a Tobit-GARCH reaction function with an asymmetric power PGARCH(1,1) impact function. Our results show that the impact of pre-announced and transparent US$ 20 million daily interventions, adopted by Colombia in 2008-20-12, has been much larger than the impact of dirty interventions adopted in 2004-2007.We find that the impact of a change in daily interventions (from US$ 20 million to US$ 40 million) raises the exchange rate by approximately Col $2, implying that actual interventions of US$ 1,000 million increase the exchange rate in one day by 5.50%. We also find that capital controls have a positive effect.

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  • Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010767, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:010767
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 428, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia. An Event Study Approach," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    4. Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Juan D. Hernandez-Leal & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2017. "When Multiple Objectives Meet Multiple Instruments: Identifying Simultaneous Monetary Shocks," Borradores de Economia 997, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2015. "Simultaneous Monetary Policies in the Context of the Trilemma: Evidence from the Central Bank of Turkey," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013203, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Andrés Murcia & Diego Rojas, 2014. "Determinantes de la tasa de cambio en Colombia: un enfoque de microestructura de mercados," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(74), pages 52-67, June.
    7. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Different Types of Foreign Exchange Intervention: An Event Study Approach," Borradores de Economia 784, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Samuel Pienknagura, "undated". "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16107, The World Bank.
    10. Keefe, Helena Glebocki & Rengifo, Erick W., 2015. "Options and central bank currency market intervention: The case of Colombia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-25.
    11. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2015. "A Survey on the Effects of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012424, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Juan David Durán-Vanegas, 2015. "Do foreign exchange interventions work as coordinating signals in Colombia?," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 169-175, Diciembre.
    13. Nuttathum Chutasripanich & James Yetman, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention: strategies and effectiveness," BIS Working Papers 499, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Catalán-Herrera, Juan, 2016. "Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-114.
    15. Sebastian Gomez-Cardona, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate in a Structural VAR for a Small Open Economy," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    16. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:0:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Pincheira & Juan Manuel Julio & Hernán Rincón & Santiago García-Verdú & Miguel Zerecero & Marco Vega & Erick Lahura & Ramon Moreno, 2014. "The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru," Borradores de Economia 849, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. repec:sbe:breart:v:35:y:2015:i:1:a:46423 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2015. "Price Discovery in Brazilian FX Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(1), October.
    20. Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Luis F. Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Revisited: A New Way of Estimating Censored Models," Borradores de Economia 972, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Helena Glebocki Keefe & Erick W. Rengifo, 2014. "Options and Central Banks Currency Market Intervention: The Case of Colombia," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2014-06, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    22. Gustavo Adler & Camilo Ernesto Tovar, 2014. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and their Impact on Exchange Rate Levels," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-48, January-J.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank intervention; reaction function; Tobit-GARCH; foreign exchange intervention mechanisms; capital controls; dirty interventions;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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