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Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case

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  • Jonathan Kearns
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

The endogeneity of exchange rates and intervention has long plagued studies of the effectiveness of central banks actions in foreign exchange markets. Researchers have either excluded contemporaneous intervention, so that their explanators are predetermined, or obtained a small, and typically incorrectly signed, coefficient on contemporaneous intervention. Failing to account for the endogeneity, when central banks lean against the wind and trade strategically, will likely result in a large downward bias to the coefficient on contemporaneous intervention -- explaining the negative coefficient frequently obtained. We use an alternative identification assumption, a change in Reserve Bank of Australia intervention policy, that allows us to estimate, using simulated GMM, a model that includes the contemporaneous impact of intervention. There are three main results. Our point estimates suggest that central bank intervention has a economically significant contemporaneous effect. A $US100m purchase of the domestic currency will appreciate the exchange rate by 1.35 to 1.81 per cent. This estimate is remarkably similar to the calibration conducted by Dominguez and Frankel (1993), who themselves noted their estimate was larger than previous empirical findings. Secondly, the vast majority of the effect of an intervention on the exchange rate is found to occur during the day in which it is conducted, with only a smaller impact on subsequent days. Finally, we confirm findings that Australian central bank intervention policy can be characterized by leaning aginst the wind.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9062 Note: IFM ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    2. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
    3. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 1-25.
    4. Laura Andrade-Pardo & Oscar Valencia-Arana & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Uncovering the portfolio balance channel with the use of sovereign credit ratings," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 34(81), pages 191-205, November.
    5. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2015. "A Survey on the Effects of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Borradores de Economia 862, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    8. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information: The Chilean Case," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 215-256, January.
    10. Carpenter, Andrew & Wang, Jianxin, 2007. "Herding and the information content of trades in the Australian dollar market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 173-194.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 08/32, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hali Edison & Paul Cashin & Hong Liang, 2006. "Foreign exchange intervention and the Australian dollar: has it mattered?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 155-171.
    13. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Goddard, John & Onali, Enrico, 2016. "Long memory and multifractality: A joint test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 288-294.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bal??zs ??gert & Maroje Lang, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions in Croatia and Turkey: Should We Give a Damn?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp755, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Kisukyabo Simwaka & Leslie Kwacha Mkandawire, 2004. "The Efficacy of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Malawi," Macroeconomics 0407022, EconWPA.
    18. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Balázs Égert & Maroje Lang, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions in a small emerging market: the case of Croatia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 35-62, June.
    20. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "The effectiveness of official intervention in foreign exchange market in Malawi," MPRA Paper 1123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Shakila Aruman, 2003. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Australia: A Factor Model Approach with GARCH Specifications," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 135, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    22. João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2014. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Working Papers Series 363, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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