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The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS: The Post 1993 Experience

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for regime specific intervention effects we also estimate Markov Switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results from the EGARCH models show that interventions influenced the conditional mean in only one case. Both volatility increasing and decreasing effects are found for the conditional variance. In the MS-ARCH model more effects on the mean are found. If significant, intervention tends to affect the level of the six ERM I exchange rates only in periods of low and medium volatility. For the conditional variance more volatility decreasing than increasing effects are found. Overall, given our approaches (EGARCH and MS-ARCH), the results show that even in the same institutional framework, intervention does not seem to affect the means and variances in a consistent and predictable manner.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 55.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2001
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:55
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  1. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  2. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-747, November.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
  5. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
  6. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
  7. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  8. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-676, October.
  9. Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August.
  10. Labhard, Vincent & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "The New EMS: Narrow Bands inside Deep Bands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 143-146, May.
  11. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  12. Karen K. Lewis, 1995. "Stochastic Regime Switching and Stabilizing Policies within Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
  14. Flandreau, Marc, 1998. "The burden of intervention: externalities in multilateral exchange rates arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 137-171, June.
  15. Iannizzotto, Matteo & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 96-110, March.
  16. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
  17. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  18. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  19. Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1999. "What can the ECB learn from Bundesbank interventions? Evidence on the link between exchange rate volatility and interventions," Kiel Working Papers 955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  20. De Vries, C.G. & Leuven, K.U., 1994. "Stylized Facts of Nominal Exchange Rate Returns," Papers 94-002, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
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